Big Jeff’s Week 7 Big Ten Football Picks of the Week

Week 6 Big Ten Football Picks of the Week (WEEKLY REVIEW)

Before we cover the Week 7 picks, let’s first do a comprehensive review of how I did in Week 6, but also go deep with insights on some of the teams like Penn State.

(Odds by FanDuel on 10.2.25)

General Comments:

• In the first really crazy day in the Big Ten I went a disappointing 2-3 for the week but I was worried it could be worse because I got off to an 0-3 start.  
• I did win my “LOCK CITY” pick of week game again in getting a late TD backdoor cover in taking Michigan State and +11.5 vs. Nebraska.
• Year-to-date I am 14-16 overall.
• Here’s what I got right and wrong in Week 6.

What I Got Wrong in Week 6:

• Michigan beat Wisconsin 24-10, falling short of the 17.5 points they were giving the Badgers. 
  • In projecting this game, I had said it should start with projecting how many points can a bad Wisconsin offense with a weak offensive line going against Michigan’s biggest strength which is their defensive line and thought 10 was the max – and that was exactly right.
  • I said Wisconsin’s path to an upset or covering is their #1 nationally ranked run defense shuts down Michigan’s run game and Justice Haynes but most important is not allowing the big explosive runs that Michigan has relied on to drive their offense
  • The Badgers covered because they only allowed 1 big explosive run to Haynes of 43 yards but still gave up 175 yards total and 5.1 yards/carry which was way too much to pull an upset given their anemic offense got outgained 252 to 445.
  • Huge for Michigan is the return of Safety Rod Moore who PFF had as the 4^th best graded defensive player nationally in Week 6 and had a big-time interception – he makes the Wolverines back end much more effective.
  • The Michigan Insight is at 4-1 they are on track to potentially make the playoffs and Penn State losing their 2^nd game also really helps them.
  • The Insight on Wisconsin is Luke Fickell blew a chance to win some points with Badger fans since his team showed they have not quit on the season and there were some bright spots like a good, likely scripted, opening drive to go up 7-0; a new QB in Hunter Simmons who played well and showed promise going 18-29 for 177 yards; and hung in the game until the 4^th quarter.
  • The problem though is after kicking a field goal to make it 24-10 with 2:43 left, they did not get an onside kick and Michigan ran the clock out with Fickell not taking ANY of his 3 timeouts. 
  • I listened to Wisconsin podcasts.  Their fans and supporters were pissed and thought Fickell quit on the team.  I felt it was truly a tone deaf move by Fickell and left their fans on a sour note when it could have been a relatively positive game.
• Illinois won at Purdue 43-27 covering the -9.5 point spread and I found it impressive winning on the road after two very emotional games that were both bad and good vs. Indiana and USC.
  • This sets up Illinois really well for a Big Noon showdown vs. #1 Ohio State this Saturday.
  • I had projected Purdue to cover but lose 34-27 – I at least got Purdue’s 27 points exactly right but my prediction had said Purdue can cover because their offense can keep up with Illinois IF THEY DON’T TURN THE BALL OVER.
  • Entering the game Illinois was +5 in turnover and Purdue -5.  I lost this pick mostly by foolishly thinking a relatively poor team like Purdue would not turn it over against a team like Illinois whose recipe for success has been winning the turnover battle.
  • Purdue had 2 lost fumbles while Illinois had no turnovers.  Post game Illinois +7 turnover ratio puts them tied for 5^th best in the nation and tied for 1^st in the Big Ten with Maryland.  Purdue at -7 in turnovers is last in the Big Ten and tied for 128^th in the nation.
  • Insight for Illinois is their defense has to be better to have a chance to make the playoffs.  The last 3 games they have given up 1,522 yards (579 to Indiana and 490 to USC, 453 to Purdue) or 507 yards/game.  For the year, Illinois ranks 93^rd in the nation in Total Defense (388 ypg) or 16^th in the Big Ten.
  • Insight for Purdue is they are not good enough to win games in the Big Ten if they continue to lose the turnover battle.  They are -5 in their two Big Ten losses to USC and Illinois.
• Third wrong pick.  After spotting Maryland 20 points, Washington woke up in the third quarter to overcome a 95% plus chance to lose projection to win 24-20.
  • I had Washington winning 31-23 and covering the big -6.5 point spread behind QB Demond Williams Jr. and their skill players.Demond Williams really struggled in the first half as if he still was on West Coast time.  If he had woken up in the 2^nd quarter vs the 3^rd quarter I would have covered this one.For Maryland fans it had to be frustrating for Mike Locksley to not hold a 20-point lead especially given his reputation of losing in October and also making him now 0-9 in games at Maryland coming off a bye.  But the silver lining is you can see this young team led by freshman QB Malik Washington has huge potential.The  Washington takeaway is this comeback was so important since last year they were 0-5 on the road with an average loss of 20 points. Winning on the road is the next step for a team like Washington if they want to finish in the top half of the Big Ten and eventually challenge for Big Ten titles.
• • The Maryland takeaway is despite all the positives of a 4-1 start, the main reason they did not win this game was they have no run game which prevented them from controlling the ball and running clock in the second half to prevent the Washington comeback. After going up 20-0 with 3:35 left in the third quarter here were the time of possession on their final 4 drives: 1:20, 1:32, 2:54 and 1:38.
  • Maryland is last in the Big Ten in rushing and 128^th in the country at 93 yards/game and averages only 3.26 yards/carry second to last in the Big Ten (Wisconsin is worse) and 121^st in the nation.  If Maryland wants to consistently win in the Big Ten they must have at least a decent run game.

What I Got Right in Week 6:

• Ohio State pounded Minnesota 42-3 in a rare night game in Columbus after spotting the Gophers a 3-0 lead.
  • I had predicted Ohio State winning 42-10 and that Ohio State would open up the offense much more given this was a home game and Julian Sayin had 4 starts under his wing including in tough matchups vs. Texas and at Washington and that is exactly what happened. 
  • People underestimate how risk averse almost all coaches are with young quarterbacks.  And because Ohio State’s defense was playing so elite it only made sense Ryan Day and OC Brian Hartline would be quite conservative on play calling with Julian Sayin.   Fans were complaining about this, but I didn’t hear any single former coach who covers the game saying a peep about it.
  • Sayin went 23-27 for 326 yards and 3 TDs and 5 explosive passes over 29 yards including 48, 49 and 44 yards to Carnell Tate who had 183 total yards.
  • PFF Graded Sayin as the nations QB of the week and Ohio State for Offensive Line of the week as they allowed only 3 pressures to Minnesota and Julian Sayin getting knocked to the ground only twice.
  • And as usual the Ohio State defense was dominant after giving up 66 yards on the opening drive they gave up a total of 96 yards the rest of the way on 8 drives for an avgerage12 yards/drive and held Minnesota to 1-12 on 3^rd and 4^th down.  This was no surprise as Minnesota’s offense is solely reliant on the pass.
  • The insights for Minnesota are it was great to see running back Darius Taylor play for the first time since Week 2 and get 8 rushes.   Minnesota must improve their running game as they are 15^th in the Big Ten at 129 yards/game and must have a healthy Taylor to have a chance to get the ground game going.
• Finally, Nebraska beat Michigan State 38-27 to win by only 11 allowing me to win my Michigan State pick and getting 11.5 points based on a late Sparty touchdown for a backdoor cover.
  • Matchup of Nebraska’s Big Ten best pass offense (2^nd in nation) against Michigan State’s Big Ten worst pass defense, though I argued that reflected Sparty playing the #4 and #5 best passing offenses in Boston College and USC, and probably wasn’t that bad.
  • And then Nebraska went in with the nations best pass defense giving up just 76 yards/game – though their schedule had included poor passing teams.
  • This game was pretty ugly on a windy day in Lincoln as Nebraska won the yardage battle with only 282 to Michigan State’s 242 yards and the teams combined for 11 penalties.
  • For Nebraska, their leading passing offense only had 194 yards from Dylan Raiola but the pass defense was outstanding yielding only 156 yards to Michigan State and generating 2 interceptions and 5 sacks.
  • For Michigan State, Aidan Chiles really struggled going 9-23 for just 85 yards and 2 interceptions – that was more like the bad early last season Chiles.  It was 2^nd stringer Alessio Milivojevic who came in when Chiles got hurt and was 6-7 for 71 yards and a TD.
  • The insights on Nebraska are their offensive line is a weakness AND it seems Dylan Raiola holds on to the ball too long as he took 5 sacks in this game and for the year the Huskers have given up 15 or 3/game which is 116^th in the nation and tied for 15^th in the Big Ten.
  • The takeaway on Michigan State is first their defense is flat out bad ranking second to last in the Big Ten in both yards/game allowed (359/game) and points at 30.6/game.
  • The second takeaway is Aidan Chiles and the pass game has been mostly disappointing, ranking 13th in the Big Ten in yards and Chiles of course had the 2 interceptions this week.
  • PPF ranks Chiles 15^th in Big Ten quarterback total offense ranking and 17^th in passing efficiency right between Northwestern’s Preston Stone and Wisconsin’s Danny O’Neil.  Not good company to keep.

Big Jeff’s Week 6 Big Ten Football Picks of the Week

Forde-Yard Dash: Imagining the Wildest College Football Coaching Carousel Chain Reaction

Week 7 Big Ten Football Picks of the Week

All Odds by FanDuel as of 10.9.25.

This week for the first time this season we have a full slate of games with all 18 teams playing conference games.  For my Top 5 games to analyze this week I am including the 3 games involving ranked teams, plus a big rivalry game between Iowa and Wisconsin and then Nebraska who at 4-1 still has playoff hopes playing at 4-1 Maryland.

Just a reminder when I analyze these picks it’s all about “Matchups and Motivation”.  I am looking for edges in both as a look at two opponents.  Here are the four other Big Ten Matchups and spreads I am not predicting (Home Team in CAPS).

Other Big Ten Conference Games (4)

Friday Night: WASHINGTON -9.5 Rutgers

PENN STATE -22.5 Northwestern

MINNESOTA -9.5 Purdue

MICHIGAN STATE -7.5 Ucla

Game 1:  #1 Ohio State -14.5  #17 Illinois (49.5 O/U) – per FanDuel

Background:

How good is this #17 ranked Illinois team that is 5-1 overall and 2-1 in the Big Ten?  Can anybody confidently say based on the last time they had the big stage visiting Indiana 3 weeks ago as the #9 ranked team and getting shellacked 63-10? 

Illinois has rebounded very nicely since then upsetting #21 USC at the time at home 34-32 and taking care of Purdue last week 43-27.  Now they welcome #1 Ohio State this week in the ultimate barometer game for any Big Ten team given how the Buckeyes are playing.

All along, I have doubted Illinois as a legit playoff team based on their average recruiting and how going back to last year, they are a statistically average team and that holds true again this year.   But due to excellent coaching they thrive in one score games, finding ways to win with a 6-1 one score record the past 2 seasons.   lllinois ranks 10^th in the Big Ten in total offense and 16^th in total defense, including dead last in pass defense at 252 yards/game.

ESPN’s SP+ rankings places Illinois at #29 in the nation and 9^th in the Big Ten including behind unranked AP teams USC, Penn State, Nebraska, and Washington.

Ohio State meanwhile is 5-0 overall and 2-0 in the Big Ten after a blowout win over Minnesota last week 42-3.  Ohio State’s defense is playing even better than last year’s #1 ranked national defense that had 8 starters get drafted in the NFL which speaks to Ohio State’s recruiting, coaching and development.  ESPN SP+ has Ohio State #2 right behind #1 Oregon. 

Ohio State is 3^rd in the nation and 1^st in the Big Ten in Total Defense yielding 216 yards/game, and leads the nation in scoring defense giving up 25 points in 5 games (5 points/game).

This is an extremely important game for Ohio State since amazingly with Texas getting their 2^nd loss and falling out of the Top 25, they don’t have a single win over a ranked team.  And after this game, the rest of the schedule only includes two other potential Top 25 teams assuming Penn State recovers to re-enter the Top 25 and that Michigan stays there ranked #15 currently. 

After 5 games, Ohio State’s schedule ranks 20^th toughest in the country and 5^th toughest in the Big Ten according to PFF, but the remaining 7 games only rank 49^th toughest in the country and 2^nd easiest in the Big Ten only behind Minnesota. 

For the year Ohio State is 4-0-1 vs the FanDuel spread and Illinois is 5-1 vs the spread.

Why Ohio State Can Cover:

The right side of Illinois offensive line vs. Ohio States left side duo of tackle Kaden McDonald and end Caden Curry is one of the worst mismatches we will see all year in a Big Ten game and prevent Luke Altmyer from having the time he needs have a big day throwing against Ohio State.

Illinois formula for success is leveraging star senior quarterback Luke Altmyer’s passing ability to outscore opponents as Illinois is 7^th in the Big Ten in passing yards (267 yards/game) and 9^th in the Big Ten and tied for 25^th in the nation in scoring offense at 37 points/game. 

Illinois’ line has held up fairly well against average defenses but against better fronts like Indiana had, they have completely struggled.  Illinois has given up 19 sacks on the year which is 131^st in the country, and the works in the Big Ten.  Illinois is going to struggle vs Ohio State’s maulers up front and Altmyer will not have the success Illinois needs in the passing game to put up points on Ohio State.

Digging deeper on that let’s look at the right side of Illinois line vs Ohio State.  Illini center Josh Kreutz ranks 19^th in both overall PFF blocking and pass blocking among Big Ten centers and hopes to be back for this game and the Illinois right guard is Brandon Henderson who ranks both 34^th in Big Ten guard overall blocking and pass blocking going up against Ohio State’s Kaden McDonald who is the #5 PFF Big Ten ranked defensive tackle (82.2 rating).

Illinois right tackle is Melvin Priestly who ranks 39^th in PFF overall Big Ten blocking for tackles but a much better #16 in Big Ten tackle pass blocking and he will be up against Caden Curry who is the #1 PFF Big Ten overall ranked defensive end (88.6 rating) and is #11 in pass rushing.

More generally, Ohio State’s defense is the best in the country statistically and should hold down Illinois one dimensional offense. 

Ohio States balanced offense vs. the Illinois defense is also a total mismatch and Illinois is not going to be able to contain Ohio State’s offense which will put up too many points for Illinois to keep up. 

As first year starter Julian Sayin gains more experience, Ohio State will open up the offense more like they did vs. Minnesota.  The conshaveative play calling during the first 4 games has muted Ohio State’s season stats on offense but even still they are 4^th in Big Ten total offense at 451 yards/game, 5^th in passing offense (280/game) and 9^th in rushing at 172 yards/game. 

More impressive though they have stars at all positions as wide receivers Jeremiah Smith (463 yards) and Carnell Tate (435 yards) are likely the best combo in college football, their offensive line has played well with quarterback Julian Sayin getting sacked only twice this year, they have an explosive running back in freshmen Bo Jackson who is averaged 7.5 yards/carry (360 total yards) and Sayin leads the nation in completion percentage at 80.2% and he’s 2^nd in the nation in ESPN’s quarterback rating metric.

Ohio State’s offense is getting better each week, while Illinois defense is a major liability as they are 16th in Big Ten total defense and last in pass defense (252 yards/game) as I mentioned earlier.

Illinois needs Ohio State to underestimate them and not play a sharp game but given the results of the last two weeks I don’t see that happening.   

The perfect time for Illinois to play Ohio State would have been the game after Illinois got blown out by Indiana.  Maybe Ohio State would have totally underestimated Illinois and if Illinois played like they did vs. USC that could be the recipe for an upset. 

But Illinois has played well the last two weeks and combine that with Penn State’s shocking upset at UCLA last week and I don’t see Ohio State coming into this game taking Illinois lightly. 

Why Take the Points with Illinois:  

IF Illinois can give Altmyer time to throw, he is playing at an elite level and has a strong #1 receiver in Hank Beatty to throw to and maybe they can move the ball against the OSU secondary.

Luke Altmyer is tough and experienced and doesn’t make mistakes as he has 12 TDs on the year but has yet to throw an interception.  ESPN’s quarterback rating has him ranked 6^th in the nation and he is completing a career high 74% of his passes.  And senior Hank Beatty has emerged as a true #1 receiver for Illinois and is 5^th in the nation in receiving with 569 yards and an impressive 17.8 yards/catch. Collin Dixon is a good second receiver with 311 yards.

Since Illinois only averages 3.7 yards/rush, it’s an absolute must for Illinois to have success throwing the ball vs Ohio State.

Since Illinois plays statistically average, they need to continue to win in the margins and I think they need to be at least plus 2 in turnover margin to have a chance vs the Buckeyes.   Illinois is +7 on the year for turnovers which ranks 5^th in the nation.  Ohio State is +1 on the year and has lost only 1 fumble but Julian Sayin has thrown 3 interceptions including 2 vs Ohio in game three.  Illinois needs to find a way to get some pressure on Sayin to force some mistakes. 

And Illinois needs to be aggressive, so I expect some trick plays and maybe even an onside kick.

Illinois must “win the Red Zone” which is a rare relative weakness for the Ohio State offense.  If Illinois gets it to the Ohio State red zone they need touchdowns not Field Goals. 

Unfortunately, Illinois ranks just 85^th in the nation in red zone offense conversion rate at 82.8%, that includes 17 TDs on 29 red zone trips (59% TD rate). And then Ohio State is #1 in red zone defense at 37.5% only allowing 8 total trips, with no touchdowns and 3 FGs.  Illinois needs to change that dynamic in this game.

Ohio State’s offense ranks 58^th in the nation with an 88% overall conversion rate and 18 TDs on 25 red zone trips (72% TD rate).   Illinois defense ranks only 90^th in the nation in red zone defense with a 88.9% allowed conversion rate including 13 TDs on 18 red zone trips (72% TD rate).

Big Jeffs Call: Because I don’t think Ohio State will underestimate Illinois, they are going to have to beat Ohio State toe-to-toe, which will be extremely difficult given the talent gap.  Illinois needs Ohio State to play their worst game of the year – by a lot.

Working backward with Ohio State’s defense averaging giving up 5.0 points/game and given Illinois weak offensive line, what is the most likely points Illinois can score.  I will say 20 points best case.   Then how much can Illinois weak defense that is giving up 24.0 points/game overall but 40.6 points in 3 Big Ten games including 27 points to lowly Purdue limit OSU’s offense?

Even if Illinois scores 20, they need to hold Ohio State to under 35 and I just don’t see it happening.  I call for Ohio State to cover and win easily 34-14 and so it’s also my Lock City pick of the week.

Game 2: #3 OREGON -7.5 #7 Indiana (55.5 O/U) – per FanDuel

Background:  

Statistically, both these teams are excellent and actually closely mirror each other.

• Total Offense: Indiana 538 yards/game (5^th in nation, 2^nd in Big Ten); Oregon 504 yards/game (9^th in nation, 3^rd in Big Ten)
• Scoring Offense: Indiana 47.8 points/game (4th in nation, 2^nd in Big Ten); Oregon 46.6 points/game (6th in nation, 3rd in Big Ten)
• Total Defense: Indiana 221 yards/game (5^th in nation, 2nd in Big Ten); Oregon 238 yards/game (7^th in nation, 3^rd in Big Ten)
• Scoring Defense: Indiana 9.6 points/game (3^rd in nation, 2^nd in Big Ten); Oregon 12.2 points/game (8^th in nation 3^rd in Big Ten)

Both these teams are playing like and look like Top 5 teams making this one of the biggest games of the college football season.

Indiana is coming off a bye week and enters 5-0 overall and 2-0 in the Big Ten that includes pounding #17 Illinois 63-10 and a close 20-15 win at Iowa.  After making the playoffs last year and going 11-2, Curt Cignetti is now an incredible 16-2 overall at Indiana, which is the all-time losingest program among FBS teams.

But Indiana still is not respected across all college football experts and fans as a team who truly can go on a playoff run and potentially win a title.  The argument is they are a team who is good but not great and took advantage of a weak schedule to rack of their wins.  The fact they did not look good in their two losses last year to Ohio State and Notre Dame also feeds that narrative.

This Oregon game is a huge opportunity for Indiana to change that narrative.  It looked like the game at Penn State later in the season would be a second opportunity but given Penn State’s struggles it magnifies the importance of this game for Indiana.

Also, according to PFF Indiana has only the 47^th toughest remaining schedule in the nation, and 3^rd easiest in the Big Ten so a win at Oregon means making the playoffs is a high certainty.

Oregon is coming off a bye as well after the big and emotional win at Penn State in overtime 30-24 and are also 5-0 overall and 2-0 in the Big Ten.  Oregon is in an excellent position to make the playoffs but can’t afford to lose to Indiana to make the Big Ten championship game since they don’t play Ohio State. 

Right now it looks like a 3-team race of Oregon, Indiana and Ohio State to win the Big Ten.  From a national perspective, the 3 teams cited as most likely to win CFP title is Oregon, Ohio State and Miami.

This spread opened at 10 points on Sunday and is now down to 7.5.  Oregon is 4-1 on the year vs. the spread, with the only non-cover vs Northwestern and Indiana is 3-2 vs. the spread not covering vs. Iowa and the opener vs Old Dominion.

Why Oregon Can Cover:

The Oregon defensive line vs Indiana’s offensive line is a major question mark for Indiana based on history since Cignetti has been at Indiana.   Against teams with very talented defensive lines Indiana has struggled.  Against Michigan last year Indiana had 246 total yards (40 rushing), in a loss to Ohio State they had 153 total yards (85 rushing) and in the playoff loss to Notre Dame they had 278 yards (63 rushing) but 138 of those yards came in the 4^th quarter when IU was down 20-3.

Oregon’s entire defensive line super talented and highly rated by PFF with all individual rankings in the green (73.4 to 74.3 rating) but led by left end Matayo Uiagalelei (83.7 rating) who ranks 5^th among Big Ten defensive ends in both total defense and pass rushing.   Meanwhile, Indiana’s line also ranks really well except for right guard Bray Lynch but they have not proven it against talented defensive lines like Oregon has.

Donte Moore is a true dynamic, dual threat, difference maker and with a strong supporting cast and playing at home is going to be difficult for Indiana to contain.  Moore is possibly playing like the best quarterback in the nation and is the main reason Oregon is scoring as the 6^th best in the nation.   

Moore is completing 75% of his passes with 14 TDs and 1 interception and ranks 8^th in PFF passing grade but it’s his mobility and improvising skills that sets him apart from other top QBs.  Think of the game against Penn State when he eluded Dani Dennis-Sutton to complete the game winning TD in overtime.  Few QBs can execute such plays.

Indiana has no history of winning big games or playing well against Top 10 teams (or Top 25 for that matter) on the road.  Now Indiana has not had many opportunities to even play Top 25 teams under Cignetti.  Last season the only regular season Top 25 game all year was at #2 Ohio State.  This year they played #9 at the time Illinois but that was at home. 

Against Ohio State last year they got whipped 38-15 and then in the playoff at #7 Notre Dame they lost 27-17 but had to score 2 TDs in the last 4 minutes of the game to make it look respectable.  That is why this game is so big for Indiana’s reputation.

Why take the points with Indiana: 

Indiana’s defense is a legit Top 10-like unit and has the players to contain Oregon’s high-powered offense.   As said earlier, Indiana has the 5^th best defense in the Big Ten based on yardage and has playmakers and future NFL guys across all 3 levels from Mikail Kamara at defensive end, Aiden Fisher in linebacker and DeAngelo Ponds at cornerback who is expected to return from injury.  Ironically, the only guy not ranked high by PFF is Fisher (59.2).  PFF has the Indiana defense as 2^nd best rated in the Big Ten and 6^th in the nation.

Indiana leads Big Ten in rushing and is capable of running the ball on Oregon which will be really important in a tough road environment and to keep the ball from the Ducks offense.  Indiana leads the Big Ten (and is 5^th in the nation) with 268 rushing yards/game and averages 6.06 yards/carry which is 4^th in the Big Ten and 11^th in nation. IU is led by Maryland transfer Roman Hemby with 351 yards at 5.4/carry but have 4 running backs over 200 yards.

Meanwhile, Oregon has a solid but not great run defense ranking 11^th in the Big Ten giving up 115 yards/game and 3.44 yards/carry good for 37^th in the nation.  PFF ranks their run defense #9 in the Big Ten.

Northwestern ran for 178 at 4.8 yards/carry on the Ducks and Penn State went for 139 yards at 4.0 yards/carry and Indiana’s rush offense is better than both those teams so this is where IU can have success.

Like Oregon, Indiana also has a difference maker at quarterback in Fernando Mendoza and has two #1 like wide receivers in Elijah Sarratt (412, 6 TDs) and Omar Cooper Jr. (408, 6 TDs) gives IU the balance needed to beat a team like Oregon. 

Mendoza has 16 TDs and 1 interception and has many saying he could be a first-round draft pick, which would be Indiana’s first since 1994 (yikes).

Big Jeff’s Call: Indiana doesn’t even have to win this game to prove themselves as a national title contender.  But it’s a must they go into the 4^th quarter with a chance to win.  Because so many key players from last year are back, this IU team including the coaches now has more experience to fall back on.  Plus, playing at Iowa helps prepare them so I believe we will see a much stronger effort and Indiana will hang with Oregon.

But, I still am worried about Indiana’s offensive line and think Oregon at home and with their firepower will prevent an upset but IU covers.  Oregon 31 Indiana 24.

Game 3: Nebraska -6.5 MARYLAND (48.5 O/U) – per FanDuel

Background:

This is a matchup of two teams coming off very different weeks.  For Nebraska, they moved to 4-1 overall and 1-1 in the Big Ten after beating Michigan State 38-27 when the Spartans led at one time 21-14 so that was a good gut check.   This is the first of two important road trips, including next week at Minnesota.  A legit path to a playoff berth is there since Nebraska doesn’t play a single ranked team the rest of the year.

After a 4-0 start, Maryland blew a 20-0 lead in the second half in a brutal home loss to Washington 24-20 to make them 4-1 overall and 1-1 in the Big Ten.  Maryland has tons of young talent, but their issue is they have the Big Ten’s worst rushing offense which limits their ceiling.

The good news for Maryland though is they have exceeded expectations already as FanDuel had a pre-season 4.5 over/under win total which they should easily surpass with PFF projecting 7.5 wins for them now.

Against the spread Nebraska is 3-2 but did not cover the past two games, while Maryland is 3-2 vs the spread and covered their last two.  Maryland won their last meeting at Nebraska 13-10 in 2023.

Why Nebraska Can Cover:

Nebraska’s biggest strength of their elite pass defense matches up really well with Maryland’s one-dimensional pass-oriented offense which will limit Maryland’s scoring.

Nebraska is weak against the run ranking 2^nd to last in the Big Ten yielding 156 yards/game but Maryland’s run offense as talked about earlier is last in the Big Ten at 93 yards/game so they are not equipped to take advantage of this Husker weakness.

In contrast, Nebraska is 1^st in the nation in pass defense at 92 yards/game.  Nebraska has not faced any great passing team but Michigan State last week had a pretty strong pass offense under Aidan Chiles but they held the Spartans to only 156 yards passing (on 15-30 attempts). Maryland is almost solely reliant on their passing game behind true freshman quarterback Malik Washington but even still they rank just 9^th in the Big Ten in passing at 256 yards/game.

Nebraska’s ability to contain the Maryland passing game is key to this game.

I will take Dylan Raiola in his second year starting over Maryland true freshman Malik Washington as a key difference in the game and Nebraska is 2^nd in the Big Ten in passing offense (320 yards/game).  Washington has been really good for Maryland but still only completes 60% of his passes but a solid 9 touchdowns with only 2 interceptions.  As good as he’s been, he’s still just a freshman and since Maryland can’t run the ball, relying so much on a true freshman is a scary proposition.

Meanwhile Dylan Raiola continues to shine in upping his completion percentage to 74% and his TD to INT ratio from 13/11 last year to 12/2 so far this year.

Maryland’s struggles under Mike Locksley in October is a real thing.  Famously Maryland is mostly great in the non-conference season under Mike Locksley, but once he gets into October the struggles start.  With last week’s loss, going back to the start of the 2023 season Maryland is 1-6 in October. 

It’s hard to pinpoint what the issue is, but history shows this is a real problem.  Combine that with how Nebraska under Rhule isstarting to win games vs teams of relative equal quality favors the Huskers.

Why take the points with Maryland: 

Nebraska has great pass offense but Maryland’s young defensive line is really good and the Michigan game revealed a good defensive line can get to the quarterback and disrupt the Husker passing game.

All four Maryland defensive linemen rank well in PFF and have been disruptive and the key really to Marylands early season success.  The Terps lead the Big Ten and are tied for 4^th in the nation with 19 sacks. 

Meanwhile, Nebraska is tied for 3^rd to last in the Big Ten allowing 15 sacks or 3/game. Michigan had 7 sacks against Nebraska.  Maryland is well equipped to stop what Nebraska does best.

It’s not good when I struggle to find a second good reason for a team to cover a spread but that is the case with this matchup.  I suppose just in general being a 6.5-point underdog at home for Maryland is a pretty high figure.

Turning to ESPN’s SP+ rankings Nebraska comes in at #19 and rating of 19.2, while Maryland is #34 with a 12.7 rating, so that’s a 6.5 difference – right on the spread.  Nebraska is not a juggernaut so Maryland getting the cover would not be a surprise.

Big Jeff’s Call: In choosing this game, it just feels like Nebraska is a more complete team than this young Maryland group.  And I go back to Nebraska’s up till now elite pass defense matching up well to stop Maryland’s passing game as a reason to choose the Huskers.  Then add to that Maryland’s struggles in October.

If Nebraska were not a high scoring offense that averages 42.4/game, I could justify taking Maryland at this spread but I feel too many points will be put up in the game so I will take Nebraska to win cover the 6.5 points.  Nebraska 31 Maryland 21.  Confidence: Medium.

Game 4: Iowa -3.5 WISCONSIN (35.5 O/U) – per FanDuel

Background:

Ugh.  Will Iowa quarterback Mark Gronowski be available, which at this time is unknown but I feel it is a huge aspect of deciding who wins this game?  Not surprisingly this game has the lowest over/under of all Big Ten games at 35.5 as it involves the two worst offenses in the Big Ten with Iowa 2^nd to last and Wisconsin dead last.

Iowa comes in 3-2 overall and 1-1 in the Big Ten and had a bye week after a disappointing home loss to Indiana 20-15.  This game is huge for Iowa not just because Wisconsin is a hated rival, but their remaining schedule is difficult with no Big Ten bottom feeders other than possibly Michigan State.

Wisconsin is 2-3 overall and 0-2 in the Big Ten and is looking for the first good win of the season under Luke Fickell.  To be blunt, Luke Fickell needs to win this football game because this is not the best version of Iowa and the remaining schedule is brutal with 4 ranked teams remaining and also solid Washington and Minnesota teams.  Even if Wisconsin retains Fickell, going something like 4-8 or 3-9 would be terrible for recruiting and fan base support.

Iowa 3-1-1 against the spread on the year but has covered their past 3 games, while Wisconsin is 2-3 against the spread but did cover the 17.5 in the last game vs. Michigan.  

Iowa has won 3 in a row vs. the Badgers including last year’s 42-10 embarrassing blowout at Iowa so you would think the Badgers will be amped up for revenge.

Why Iowa Can Cover: 

Iowa will have the best unit on the field in their offensive line, which is important since Wisconsin’s best unit is their defensive line, so the Hawkeyes are equipped to mitigate Wisconsin’s biggest strength.

All stats show that Iowa has the best offensive line in the Big Ten and gives them hope they will be able to run the ball vs. a great Wisconsin run defense.  Per PFF, Iowa has the Top 3 graded offensive linemen in the Big Ten (Guard Kade Pieper and Tackles Trevor Lauch and Gennings Dunker) and then the other 2 starters are ranked 7^th and 10^th (Guard Beau Stephens and Center Logan Jones respectively).  This in game matchup will be must watch TV.

I asked this similar question when Oregon played at Penn State but in a game like this of teams fairly close in talent what coach do you trust more to win the game – Luke Fickell or Kirk Ferentz?  I also asked this when Iowa played at Rutgers earlier this year citing that Ferentz is the all-time winningest Big Ten coach because he tends to win games like this.   Little things will matter in this game, and Ferentz and his staff are better than Fickell and his staff are to include things like halftime adjustments.

Under Luke Fickell Wisconsin no longer has a big home field edge.   It used to be when you played Wisconsin typically only the top teams would beat the Badgers.  Those days are gone and under Luke Fickell the Badgers are 3-7 at home in the Big Ten and 9-8 overall.  Iowa can go in confident to come away with a win as they did 15-6 the last time in 2023.

Why take the points with Wisconsin:

Iowa is a great matchup for the Wisconsin defense as they struggle in the pass game and Wisconsin is playing elite against the run but is weak in the secondary against teams with really good skills players which Iowa does not have.

First Iowa is second to last in the Big Ten in offense at 327 yards/game and dead last in passing offense (by a lot) at 149 yards/game.  And their best passer, Mark Gronowski, is questionable for this game.   Iowa’s run offense is 7^th in the Big Ten (179/game) but only averaging 4.4 yards/carry, which seems really low given their great offensive line.

Meanwhile, the Wisconsin run defense is legit and ranks 2^nd in the Big Ten (to Iowa) and 6^th in the nation giving up 75 yards/game and a paltry 2.9 yards/carry given up, and their defensive line is the strength of the team.  The Badgers did give up 175 yards to Michigan (at 5.1 yards/carry) but Michigan has an elite running back in Justice Haynes that Iowa does not have. Wisconsin can contain the Iowa running game and force Iowa to convert 3^rd downs with the passing game.

New QB Hunter Simmons played well last week and raises Wisconsin’s offense ceiling vs. Danny O’Neill.   In his first start at Michigan, the senior transfer from Southern Illinois Hunter Simmons played well against a really good Michigan front seven going 18-29 for 177 yards but did throw an interception. 

But he looked much more competent throwing over Danny O’Neill and assuming he takes what the defense gives him against Iowa’s zone passing coverage, I think the Badger offense has the chance to be greatly improved, especially with their offensive line looking more settled as they addressed their center issues moving backup left tackle Davis Heinzen to center.

Big Jeff’s Call: I am thankful Wisconsin is favored by 3.5 and not 2.5.  In a potential rock fight like this one, that is a big deal.  Even still I would NOT bet this game.  The key to this game is Iowa’s offensive line vs Wisconsin’s defensive line, which matches the two best units for both teams.

At a certain point Wisconsin and Luke Fickell need to win a “big game” and given the team has not quit, the game is at home, and Iowa has quarterback issues as usual, I just feel this is a good setting for Wisconsin to come through. 

Plus, given the blowout to Iowa last year I like the revenge factor aspect for the Badgers and so I will take Wisconsin not to just cover but win the game outright.  Wisconsin 20 Iowa 16.  Confidence: Low

Game 5: USC -2.5 vs. #15 Michigan (57.5 O/U) – per FanDuel

Background:

This is the second best and most interesting Big Ten of the day and has big time potential playoff implications. And despite it involving a very good Michigan defense, the 57.5 over/under is highest of the day.

USC is 4-1 overall and 2-1 in the Big Ten and had a bye week after an extremely disappointing 34-32 loss at Illinois where they were 6.5-point favorites.

USC’s remaining schedule is very tough ranking 13^th in the nation and includes the annual non-conference matchup at Top 25 Notre Dame.  Given this game is at home, in my view it makes it a “must win” for USC’s playoff chances.

Michigan is 4-1 overall and 2-0 in the Big Ten with wins over Nebraska and Wisconsin last week 24-10.  Michigan’s remaining schedule is very reasonable after USC with no ranked teams until the final vs. Ohio State, as Michigan avoids playing Indiana, Illinois, Oregon and Penn State.  That is why winning this game would put Michigan in a great position to make the playoffs.

ESPN’s SP+ has USC ranked 13^th, including with the #1 rated offense, and Michigan is right behind at #14 and the #7 rated defense.

For the year USC is 2-3 vs. the spread including not covering the last 3 games and Michigan is also 2-3, not covering the last game of -17.5 vs. Wisconsin.

Why USC can cover: 

USC has easily the most dynamic offense Michigan has faced this year, and their defense has given up significant points vs. lesser offenses. 

This Michigan defense is good but not elite like past Michigan defenses.  They gave up 17 to New Mexico, 24 to Oklahoma and 27 to Nebraska.  They rate 7^th in Big Ten total defense (283/game), 11^th in pass defense, 3^rd in rush defense (77 ypg) and 6^th in scoring defense (16.2 points/game). Good but not great numbers.

Meanwhile USC is 1st in the Big Ten and 2^nd in the nation in total offense (565 yards/game), 1^st in the Big and 3^rd in the nation in pass offense (338 ypg), and even good in rushing offense at 227 yards/game, good for 4^th in the Big Ten led by Waymond Jordan (537 yards, 7.0 ypc, 5 TDs).

USC has Jayden Maiava playing as a Heisman candidate with 11 TDs and 1 interceoption throwing to dynamic wide receivers in Makai Lemon (589, 16.8 ypc, 5 TDs) and Ja’Kobi Lane.  USC has a type of balanced offense where if Michigan tries to take away one thing, USC has answers for how to adapt to that.

USC’s strengths and weaknesses on defense match up very well with the Michigan offense – advantage USC.  USC’s defense overall is average at best ranking 14^th in Big Ten total defense (359 yards/game) and 13^th in Big Ten scoring defense giving up 23.0 points/game.   

The USC pass defense is the major weakness ranking 2^nd to last in the Big Ten giving up 251 yards/game and have struggled against most teams.  But this should not hurt the Trojans that much in this game since Michigan pass offense ranks only 14^th in the Big Ten averaging 201 yards/game.  Of course, Michigan has a true freshman QB in Bryce Underwood, does not have high level wide receivers and just in general are a run-based offense.

Michigan’s strength is their explosive run game led by Justice Haynes (654 yards, 7.7 ypc, 8 TDs), and Michigan is 3^rd in Big Ten rushing at 201 yards/game and average 6.4 yards/carry, with the run game supplemented by Underwood’s 181 yards (6.7 ypc).  Surprisingly though, USC is good against the run ranking 9^th in the Big Ten but giving up only 108 yards/game and just 3.45 yards/carry (39^th in the nation and also 9^th in Big Ten). 

Plus, USC gets back junior safety Kamari Ramsey who crucially missed the Illinois game and is considered the leader of the Trojan defense.

There is a travel impact when Big Ten teams have to travel to the West Coast to play that likely magnifies when teams don’t have much experience traveling.   Michigan’s one trip out west last year, they lost to Washington 27-17 and other than that they have little experience traveling to the west coast but we know many Big Ten teams have struggled in these road game scenarios.

Why take the points with Michigan:

This is not a great overall matchup for Michigan.  But a real path to overcome all that is If Michigan’s defensive line wins the upfront battle with USC’s offensive line, like Illinois did with USC, I definitely think Michigan can win this game.

From a matchup perspective this is very possible. The entire Michigan front 4 ranks very good in PFF (75.2 to 80.5) and dominated Nebraska and harassed Dylan Raiola in that game.  USC’s offensive line struggled in their last game vs Illinois and 4 of 5 projected starters ranked in the mid-range by PFF (57.3 to 61.8) with only right tackle a Tobias Raymond ranking high (75.0).  Michigan’s defensive line has the talent and potential to ruin USC’s offensive game plan.

I still expect Michigan’s explosive run game to have some good success vs. USC but to really keep up with USC it’s likely Michigan is going to need better passing success vs. USC second to last Big Ten pass defense.   

It’s not what they want do but Michigan is better in passing than last year and has shown that ability.  Michigan is 14^th in Big Ten passing but other than the Oklahoma loss haven’t had to get too aggressive in the pass game.  I think with USCs offensive firepower though, they need to get more aggressive and other than struggling with touch passes Underwood has shown some big play ability connecting with favorite target Donaven McCulley (309 yards, at 16.3 yards/catch).

Bryce Underwood does have 3 games of over 200 yards passing vs New Mexico (251), Central Michigan (235) and Wisconsin (270) so he is capable.

Big Jeff’s Call: I just like USC in this spot with their dynamic and well-balanced offense. There is a strong case that if Michigan D-line dominates they win this game, but I think USC is going to play well despite giving up some big running plays to Michigan. 

Also, I will take USC QB Jayden Maiava over young freshman Michigan QB Bryce Underwood on the road to say USC covers and gets a big home win.  USC 34 Michigan 24. Confidence: Medium.