Big Jeff’s Week 9 Big Ten Football Picks of the Week

Week 8 Big Ten Football Picks of the Week (WEEKLY REVIEW)

Before we cover the Week 8 picks, let’s first do a comprehensive review of how I did in Week 8.

(Odds by FanDuel on 10.16.25).

General Comments:

• I was so close to having an amazing week after starting 3-0 but got quite unlucky in the final two games played at night (more on that later).
• I ended up 3-2 and lost my Lock City pick of UCLA -3.5 vs Maryland by a half-point.
• That’s 4 of the past 5 week’s I went 3-2.
• My year-to-date overall record is now .500 at 20-20 and 3-2 on Lock City games.
• Let’s do a quick what I got right and wrong in Week 8.

What I Got Wrong in Week 8: 

• Let’s start with I got wrong, which was taking Iowa to cover 2.5 points at home over Penn State and win 24-17.  The challenge in this game was not knowing what to expect from Penn State, so I went with the surer thing which is Iowa’s consistent play under Kirk Ferentz.
  • I was oh so close to winning this when Iowa scored late to go up 25-24 and then went for two which would have covered the 2.5 points, but it failed.
  • For Iowa, to win and overcome a blocked long Field Goal attempt at the end of the half that went for a Penn State TD (and 14-10 PSU lead) and to be down by 4 drive with under 5 minutes in the game and drive the length of the field for 75 yards in 2 plays to get the lead showed great resilience.
  • Not surprising at home under Kirk Ferentz they found a way to win.
  • For Penn State, just another devastating loss because at 3-4 they are now looking at needing 3 wins in 5 games to just make a bowl game which is so shocking for a team who opened the year expecting to win a National Title.
  • Penn State only mustered 266 yards in this game but given they were starting a freshman in Ethan Grunkemeyer that as not a surprise but what was is another failure by the Penn State defense under Jim Knowles to get a key stop when Penn State needed it to win a football game.
  • Side Note: Todd McShay who has connections within the Penn State program says former Northwestern coach Pat Fitzgerald is a very viable candidate if Penn State can’t get the big name coach like an Urban Meyer or someone like that – great coach, still well respected, knows the Big Ten, big success at a hard school to win at, and is available now to work and hit the ground running
• I also just barely lost my Lock City game taking UCLA at -3.5 to Maryland projecting a 7 point win, when they won by only 3 points (20-17) losing by just 0.5 points. 
  • It was a pretty ugly game with 5 combined turnovers and 15 penalties for 145 total yards.
  • For UCLA I felt they would win and cover for 4 reasons: the impact of Maryland traveling to the west coast on how Big Ten teams have struggled with that; how Mike Locksley is so poor in October which he is now 1-8 in October since the start of 2023; and how UCLA had unlocked their run game the past couple games and in this one they ran for 193 yards at 5.5 yards/carry; finally UCLA momentum and belief they are going to win.
  • For Maryland, it’s 3 straight losses by a combined 10 points after their 4-0 start but for me it further confirms the insight that this young Maryland team has great potential and Mike Locksley should be retained another year to see what he can do with it.
  • Also it’s positive that Maryland, who once had the worst run offense in the Big Ten has found something running for 127 yards at 4.9 yards/carry.

What I Got Right in Week 8:

• I took Minnesota at home as a big 7.5-point underdog to Nebraska BUT had the Huskers winning by 4 but instead, they totally dominated Nebraska with 9 sacks winning easily 24-6. 
  • For Nebraska, this game was so depressing to their fans – made worse by how much Nebraska doesn’t like Minnesota and now it’s the 6^th loss in a row for the Huskers vs the Gophers
  • Confirmed what a huge weakness their offensive line is that we saw at Michigan as well and now with 25 total sacks given up is last in the Big Ten giving up 3.57/game and tied for 131^st in the nation (3^rd to Last)
  • Without a good offensive line, you can’t be a top-level team in the Big Ten.
  • For Minnesota the insight is this shows with a healthy running back Darius Taylor, Minnesota is a totally different team with much higher upside – he went for 148 rushing yards at 6.2/carry and 4 catches for 16 yards as the Gophers outgained Nebraska 339 to 213.
• Second, I got Michigan right because I thought they would win by 7 over Washington, covering the -5.5 points and they did even better winning by 17.
  • I got this right for 3 reasons; because Michigan and freshman quarterback Bryce Underwood plays so much better at home than on the road not surprisingly; how this is Washington’s 5^th straight game many of them that were very emotional like losing to Ohio State and coming back vs Maryland so I felt they would be mentally weary and then how the Huskies are a bad road team and traveling all that was would be tough
  • With this loss the Huskies are now 1-6 in the Big Ten on the road in the last two years.
• In the third game I got right, I had Oregon easily beating Rutgers by 21, covering the 17.5 points they were giving them, and they were even way more dominant winning by 46 with an insane 750 yards of offense – it reminded me of the Indiana 53-point win over Illinois.
  • I got this right for 3 reasons: unlike other Big Ten teams Oregon does not struggle on the road moving to 6-0 in the last two years when traveling East in the Big Ten; have a well-balanced offense that Rutgers Big Ten worst overall defense can’t contain and have a good pass defense to matchup with Rutgers passing game strength.
  • Yes, Oregon is still a potentially great team, and Rutgers has little hope without the defense at least playing respectably.

Big Jeff’s Week 8 Big Ten Football Picks of the Week

Forde-Yard Dash: Sorting Out the Chaos in College Football’s Power 4 Title Races

Week 9 Big Ten Football Picks of the Week

All Odds by FanDuel as of 10.23.25.

We have 7 games in the Big Ten this week and the two games to leave out of my 5 game predictions was very easy.  Oregon is a huge favorite over Wisconsin and that game is not going to be competitive.  And then Rutgers is at Purdue and both teams are a combined 0-8 in the Big Ten.

What is really cool about this week’s 5 games is that 3 of the 5 matchups include teams that are 5-2 and thus the games are a virtual “playoff elimination” game.

Just a reminder when I analyze these picks it’s all about “Matchups and Motivation”.  I am looking for edges in both as a look at two opponents.  Here are the four other Big Ten Matchups and spreads I am not predicting (Home Team in CAPS).

Other Big Ten Games (2)

#6 OREGON -34.5 Wisconsin (44.5 O/U)

Rutgers -2.5 PURDUE (58.5 O/U)

Week 9 Big Jeff’s Picks of the Week Games (vs the Spread) SUMMARY

Odds per FanDuel (10/22/25)

Game 1: #2 INDIANA (HOME) -25.5 UCLA; (53.5 O/U) – via FanDuel

Background:

Incredibly this game has two teams that control their own destiny in helping define who makes it to the Big Ten championship game with Indiana 4-0 in the Big Ten and UCLA 3-1 after three straight wins.  It’s the FOX Big Noon game of the week which could never have been predicted 3 weeks ago.  Don’t you love college football?

The issue is UCLA at 3-4 overall and 3-1 in the Big Ten has a brutal remaining schedule that PFF ranks as not just the toughest in the Big Ten but the hardest in the nation playing Indiana this week, then Nebraska at Ohio State, Washington and at USC.   So just getting the 6 wins to make a bowl would be a huge accomplishment

Indiana is at an all-time program high #2 in the nation and is 7-0 overall.  The Hoosiers have only the 65^th toughest schedule remaining in the nation per PFF and it’s also the easiest in the Big Ten and is why their chance to make the Playoffs is 73% per PFF (higher for other sources).

Indiana is 4-3 against the spread this year and for spreads they are favored by for over 20 points they are 2-2 this year.  UCLA is 3-4 vs the spread but have won 3 of the last 4 just barely not covering last week. 

Per ESPN SP+, Indiana is ranked #3 and UCLA #68 (with a 25.4 rating point difference – almost matching the spread).

Why Indiana Can Cover-3:

1-The best way to disrupt Indiana’s balanced and high-powered offense is to have a great defensive line and UCLA does not have that which will make it hard to keep IU from scoring.

Indiana’s offense is 3^rd in the Big Ten and 7^th in the nation at 497 yards/game and 2^nd in Big Ten scoring (4^th in nation) at 43.9/game.  Plus they have great balance ranking 5^th in Big Ten passing offense and 2^nd in rushing.  Indiana’s offensive line ranks really well in PFF with the sole exception right guard Bray Lynch, but even his play has been improving. 

Their run/pass oriented offense is hard to stop without a strong opponent front four and UCLA ranks fairly weak across the line with the exception of Senior defensive tackle Gary Smith III who is 4^th in overall Big Ten defensive tackle rankings per PFF and their next ranked lineman is 79^th.

Plus, UCLA has the Big Ten’s worst rushing defense giving up 186 yards/game, which matches up really poorly with IU’s second Big Ten rushing offense that is deep with several good running backs led by Ryan Hemby.

2-Indiana’s Defensive Line vs UCLAs Offensive Line is a potential mismatch that could ruin UCLA’s offensive game plan.

Indiana did get bad news this week that starting senior defensive end Kellan Wyatt is lost for the year with a new injury and he had 8 tackles for loss and 2.5 sacks but really shined in run defense per PFF at 11^th best among Big Ten defensive ends  But IU has some depth here and the rest of the line ranks high including having 4 players ranking in the Top 12 of Big Ten defensive tackles per PFF.

Also, IU’s overall defense ranks 3^rd in the Big Ten overall, 6^th in pass defense and first in Big Ten run defense giving up only 85 yards/game and the play of the front 4 along with 3 really good linebackers has been the key to this.

Meanwhile, UCLA’s offensive line across the board is ranked poorly by PFF with the highest ranked lineman at #46 in the Big Ten per PFF in Guard Garrett DiGiorgio and after him the next lineman doesn’t appear until #61 ranked in the Big Ten.

3-Curt Cignetti still understands the importance of style points and winning by a lot to increase their chances if they lose one game, they maybe still can get one of the Top 4 playoff seeds and the Bye game that comes with it.

As explained below, giving 25.5 points is a ton to a hot team like UCLA but Curt Cignetti is not the type of coach who likes to shut down the offense with a big lead like a Ryan Day might so that favors Indiana staying aggressive even if they get out to a big lead.

Why Take the Points with UCLA:  

1-For UCLA under interim coach Tim Skipper, who is showing signs of potentially winning the UCLA job based on performance, he is taking advantage of the solid talent UCLA has had all along as they rank 26^th in the nation in the 247 Sports Talent Composite Index. 

Viewed with that information, I think we can say UCLA just greatly underachieved under DeShaun Foster and former OC Tino Sunseri vs the past 3 weeks being UCLA just riding momentum to play way over their heads.  This would mean the Bruins of the last 3 games better represent who they are than the first 4 games.

2-Think about this – both teams played Michigan State in back-to-back weeks, and both beat the Spartans by 25 points.   Yet Indiana is favored by 25.5?

Not only that but UCLA played at Michigan State, while Indiana had the Spartans at home, though we should factor in how Indiana was coming off a huge emotional game vs. at Oregon.  Granted, I don’t love the “transitive property” philosophy, but it’s not irrelevant either.

3-UCLA run game continues to shine under new OC totally changing UCLA’s offense averaging 33 points/game in the 3-game win streak vs. 14/game the first 4 games.

On the offensive side you almost have to throw out the first 4 games of the year for UCLA.   The UCLA offense now ranks a respectable 11^th in Big Ten total offense but they key has been a rejuvenated run game that now ranks 7^th in the Big Ten after early struggles and the last three games they have run for 269 yards (5.1 ypc), 238 yards (5.5 ypc), and 193 yards (5.5 ypc) blowing their yearly averages out of the water.   

Quarterback Nico Iamaleava leads the Bruins in rushing with 360 yards but they have 3 other running backs with over 200 yards led by Senior Jalen Berger with 232.  Combine that with Nico’s passing ability and you have a dangerous offense.

Big Jeffs Call:   You can make the case that despite UCLA’s newfound confidence and great play during their 3-game win streak that it won’t matter given Curt Cignetti’s killer instincts and attack philosophy.   I also am leery of UCLA playing for the 5^th straight week on the road and being mentally fatigued while Indiana is in their 3^rd game off their last bye.  But the fact UCLA is winning mitigates that.

I think Indiana will score plenty here, but UCLA’s emerging run game supplemented by Nico’s dual threat capabilities will allow UCLA to score enough and cover the 25.5 points.   Indiana 41 UCLA 21. Confidence: Medium

Game 2: WASHINGTON -4.5 #23 Illinois (55.5 O/U) – via FanDuel

Background:

Given the mostly poor Big Ten non-conference schedule, as we head late into the season we will start to get some virtual playoff elimination games, and this is the first of 3 of them this week.  Both Washington and Illinois are 5-2 overall and 2-2 in the Big Ten, so a third loss would knock one of these teams from playoff contention.

Washington is coming off a disappointing loss at Michigan 24-7 while Demond Williams Jr. struggled with 3 interceptions.  Their remaining schedule is not difficult, ranked 51^st toughest in the nation per PFF and 3^rd easiest in the Big Ten and with the toughest remaining game home vs. Oregon.

Illinois will be fresh coming off a bye after getting beat soundly at home by Ohio State.  Their remaining schedule is very easy, ranking 59^th toughest in the nation per PFF and 2^nd easiest in the Big Ten with games remaining vs. Rutgers, Maryland, Wisconsin and Northwestern. 

They could end up with 2 losses at 10-2 but the problem is they may not have a single win against a ranked team, and they have the 53-point loss to Indiana so to make the playoffs they need to start blowing out teams.

For the year Washington is 3-4 against the spread but not covered 3 of their last 4, while Illinois is 5-2 vs the spread.  ESPN SP+ has Washington ranked #23 and Illinois is ranked #27.  Washington averages 34.6 points/game and Illinois is at 34.0/game.  All numbers point to a really tight matchup.

Why Washington Can Cover:

1-Washington has a big advantage in the matchup of their balanced offense against a below average Illinois defense that doesn’t do anything particularly well.

Washington’s offense is one of the best in the Big Ten scoring 34.6 points/game,  ranking 4^th in Big Ten total offense, 6^th in passing offense and 9^th in rushing offense and QB Demond Williams Jr. sets the tone.  Though they struggled last week vs Michigan I attribute that to a very poor game from Williams Jr. who had those 3 interceptions.

Meanwhile, Illinois is 15^th in Big Ten total defense, plus 14^th in Big Ten pass defense which is not great vs. Washington and their pass offense that includes star wideout Denzel Boston (515 yards, 15.1 ypc, 6 TDs) but also good secondary skill players and supplemented by Jonah Coleman’s 284 yards receiving.

Illinois run defense is also average ranking 11^th in the Big Ten up against Jonah Coleman and his 568 yards rushing (5.1 ypc) and 12 touchdowns.

2-Illinois is susceptible to sacks disrupting their offense giving up 23 sacks (3.3/game) ranking 125^th in nation and tied for 2^nd worst in the Big Ten and with a strong and aggressive scheme Washington can take advantage of this.

Illinois has struggled against strong defensive fronts (i.e. Duke, IU, OSU).  The main issue has been the right side of the Illinois offensive line that is playing better but still ranks poorly overall per PFF, though the left side of the line led by outstanding senior left tackle J.C. Davis is actually excellent.

Washington hasn’t been great creating sacks tied for 81^st in the nation with 13 sacks (1.9/game) but defensive ends Zach Durfee and Jacob Lane actually rank a good 21^st and and 25^th respectively per PFF in Big Ten pass rushing amongst defensive ends so the Huskies are capable.

3-Washington plays great at home and they will need the home environment to lift them as they are playing their 6^th straight game without a bye.

Under Jedd Fisch Washington is 9-1 at home with their only loss to #1 Ohio State.  It’s a great environment and real home field advantage that should help lift up this team who may be weary from playing so many games without a bye.

Why take the points with Illinois: 

1-Illinois Luke Altmyer and the Illinois passing game is the strength of the team and has a favorable matchup with Washington’s pass defense.

Illinois is only 16^th in Big Ten rushing so it’s absolutely vital for QB Luke Altmyer to have success vs a Washington’s defense who is mid-level ranking 10^th in the Big Ten in total defense but only 14^th in Big Ten passing defense yielding 235 yards/game.

When given time Altmyer has been excellent completing 72% of his passes with 13 touchdowns and 1 interception and has great targets in Hank Beatty (617 yards, 15.8 ypc) and Collin Dixon (357 yards).

2-In-game Coaching advantage of Illinois over Washington and ability to win one score games.

I think Jedd Fisch is a good coach, but Brett Bielema has more experience and has been shown to be a great in-game coach able to make adjustments to help win games.  Plus, his staff has had 2 weeks to prepare for this game.

In one score games over the past two years Illinois is 6-1, while Washington is 2-3 during that time.

3-In tight games like this it can come down to Field Goals and Illinois definitely ranks better in this category

Illinois kicker David Olano is 12-13 (.923) in field goas which is 2^nd in the Big Ten and tied for 15^th in the nation while Washington kicker Grady Gross has had his struggles going 6-8 tied for 77^th in the nation. 

Unknown: How does Illinois handle traveling out West to play given the only trip the last two season was last year in a 38-9 drubbing at Oregon.  I am a believer that experience traveling matters but with Illinois coming off a bye you would think that mitigates this variable.

Big Jeff’s Call: Does Illinois handle traveling west to play for only the second time in two years or does Washington handle overcoming injuries and their 6^th straight game better?  Both teams have had inconsistent play in the trenches so it’ hard to say one team has a really big advantage there so this game may come down to the margins like turnovers and special teams, where I think Illinois has an edge.

Coming off a bye, I think there is a good chance Illinois can win but I am going to believe Washington at home will pull it out, so I call for Washington to barely win but not cover the 4.5 points.   Washington 31 Illinois 28.   Confidence: Low

Game 3: #25 Michigan -14.5 MICHIGAN STATE (48.5 O/U) – via FanDuel

Background:

The battle for the Paul Bunyan Trophy where Michigan has won 3 in a row after Michigan State had won 2 straight.

While Michigan has been up and down this year playing with a true freshman quarterback, they seem to be gradually getting better coming off a big 24-7 home win over Washington and at 5-2 overall and 3-1 in the Big Ten are still very much in the playoff hunt since their remaining schedule per PFF is only rated 50^th hardest in the nation and 5^th easiest in the Big Ten.

Michigan State is struggling to say the least with a four-game losing streak and coming off a 38-13 loss at Indiana and stand 3-4 overall and 0-4 in the Big Ten.  Getting 3 more wins for Jonathan Smith to become bowl eligible will be difficult with the 14^th toughest schedule in the nation and 6^th toughest in the Big Ten.  The fan base is not happy so a strong performance against your biggest rivals is badly needed.

For the year Michigan is 3-4 against the spread and Michigan State is the same 3-4 but have covered 3 of their last 4 games.  ESPN SP+ has Michigan ranked 21^st and Michigan State is 74^th which is second to last in conference only to Wisconsin.

Note: Justice Haynes status vs the Spartans is questionable and a big wild card for the game.

Why Michigan Can Cover:

1-Michigan’s strong defensive line is a very bad mismatch vs. a porous Michigan State offensive line where only the left tackle and center rank well, plus Michigan’s secondary is capable of containing Michigan State’s strength in pass offense.

Michigan State is 3^rd to last in Big Ten total offense (337 ypg), 12^th in passing and 14^th in rushing at 123 yards/game where they manage a paltry 3.7 yards/carry led by Makhi Frazier’s 384 yards (4.1 ypc). 

Michigan excels in rushing defense ranking 4^th in the Big Ten (15^th in nation) at 93 yards/game so it’ highly doubtful the Spartans will have rushing success making this game come down to can Michigan State move the ball through the air.

Across the board, Michigan’s four starting defensive linemen rank excellent in PFF led by left senior defensive end Derrick Moore, who is PFFs 3^rd ranked performing Big Ten defensive end and #1 in pass rushing, who will be up against Michigan State’s poorly rated offensive line.  Plus, Michigan’s defensive backfield led by junior cornerback Jyaire Hill also mostly ranks well individually in PFF.

2-Michigan State’s defense ranks 2nd worst in the Big Ten in total defense  and while inconsistent Michigan’s offense under Bryce Underwood is good and getting better and put up points with better red zone execution.

I outlined last week how much better Michigan’s offense is over the past two years overall and they currently rank a surprising 6^th in Big Ten total offense (418 ypg), though they don’t do as good a job of converting that to points ranking 11^th in Big Ten scoring (28.7 ppg).   

Michigan should move the ball, they just need to better convert that to touchdowns where they rank 81^st in the nation scoring 83% of the time in 24 red zone trips with 15 touchdowns.  This is where Underwood feeling more comfortable at QB should help.

3-At 5-2 Michigan is in a good spot with a chance to make the playoffs so should be highly motivated while Michigan State’s mental state is in question.

Why take the points with Michigan State: 

1-As bad as the Spartans defense is they are a solid 10^th in Big Ten rush defense while 2^nd to last in pass defense but Michigan doesn’t excel yet in the passing game.

If Michigan doesn’t have a fully healthy Justice Haynes they are a much less explosive team.  Yes, Jordan Marshall had a good game vs Washington for 133 yards (5.3 ypc), but he is not close to the big play threat that Haynes is who averages 7.4 yards/carry.  

And while Michigan’s offensive line is improving as the year goes along, they are still not nearly as good as the vintage Michigan teams from 2021 through 2023.

If Michigan State contains Michigan’s ability to create big plays in the run game, then they have a chance since Wolverine QB Bryce Underwood has performed much worse on the road averaging only 151 yards passing/game with just 2 TDs and 1 interception, so maybe the Wolverines can’t take as much advantage of the Spartans leaky pass defense.

2-Michigan State’s passing game behind QB Aidan Chiles still has strong potential and enough weapons to move the ball vs. Michigan.

First, we talked about how good Michigan’s front four and cornerbacks individually rank but their overall pass defense is not as good as you would think giving up 215 yards/game which is only 10^th in the Big Ten and 57^th in the nation.

Michigan State and Chiles just threw for 293 yards against a very good Indiana defense, and 5 different players had at least 3 receptions so the Spartans still have weapons led by super talented WR Nick Marsh who has 404 yards and 5 TDs on the year.  The offensive line is going to have one of it’s best games but why not versus your biggest rival?

3-In a rivalry game and playing at home getting 14.5 is a lot of points.  

The issue is the Spartans are just playing so poorly with four Big Ten losses of 14 (USC), 11 (Nebraska), 25 (UCLA) and 25 (Indiana) for an average of a 19-point loss/game.  We will find out how much pride the Spartans have this week.

Big Jeff’s Call: A key question is where is Michigan State mentally as a team in this game?  At home in a rivalry game are they going to put together their best effort or let Michigan play bully-ball on them?  I don’t have any questions on the effort I expect from Michigan.  If the Spartans don’t look good in this game the heat will be on Jonathan Smith.

This is a tough call given the Spartans are just not playing well.  But I think they Michigan State gets better effort and still lose but play just well enough to cover the 14.5   Michigan 30 Michigan State 17. Confidence: Low because of the uncertainty of Justice Haynes playing.

Game 4: NEBRASKA -7.5 Northwestern (43.5 O/U) – via FanDuel

Background:

Just like the Illinois at Washington game, this is the second virtual playoff elimination game of the week in the Big Ten with both teams at 5-2 overall and a third loss would knock each team from serious playoff consideration.

Nebraska is 2-2 in the Big Ten and reeling from a really bad 24-6 loss at Minnesota that has Husker fans deflated and questioning the ceiling of their team as they gave up 9 sacks to the Gophers and rank last in the Big Ten and 131^st in the nation allowing 25 total sacks (3.6/game).  Of course, the program also has the distraction of Matt Rhule being the likely #1 candidate for the Penn State opening hanging over their heads.

Nebraska’s remaining schedule is not easy ranking 26^th toughest in the nation per PFF.

Northwestern is 3-1 in the Big Ten and has won 4 in a row after a 1-2 start so now all of a sudden, a really good bowl game is within reach.  But Northwestern has the 7^th toughest remaining schedule in the nation and 4^th toughest in the Big Ten and still play USC, Michigan, Minnesota and Illinois.

For the year Northwestern is 5-2 against the spread including covering their last 3 games, while Nebraska is only 2-5 and has not covered their last 4 straight games.  ESPN SP+ has Nebraska ranked #26 (21^st in defense) while Northwestern is ranked 61^st including 20^th in defense.

Why Nebraska Can Cover: 

1-Nebraska is the worst in the Big Ten in allowing sacks but fortunately Northwestern has not thrived at producing sacks ranking tied for 98^th in the nation (11) at 1.57 sacks/game, potentially mitigating the Huskers biggest weakness.

Northwestern’s sack figures rank only 14^th best in the Big Ten which suggests their pass rushing ability is much worse than most Big Ten teams. 

This is important since many feel the bad sack figures for Nebraska are not just an offensive line issue but Dylan Raiola contributing by either holding onto the ball too long and exhibiting very poor pocket presence often instead of stepping up into the pocket, backing up into the pass rush.

2-Northwestern only averages 18 points/game in 4 Big Ten games so IF Nebraska can score in the upper 20’s (while they average 36.0/game) they have a great chance to cover.

Other than the bad game vs Minnesota, Nebraska has not struggled to score points this year and at home in the Big Ten have scored 27 vs Michigan and 38 vs Michigan St.  Nebraska’s 36 points/game is 5^th in the Big Ten and the Huskers are 7^th in total offense so if they scored 27 vs Michigan, they are capable of scoring similar vs. Northwestern.

Also, underrated is Nebraska running back Emmett Johnson who now leads the Big Ten in rushing with 713 yards and averages 6.9 yards/carry.   Given the issues with giving up so many sacks it feels like Nebraska should lean on Johnson and this run game even more as currently they rank only 13^th in Big Ten rushing.  Johnson only has 2 games with more than 20 carries.

Why take the points with Northwestern:

1-Northwestern’s run-oriented offense matches up extremely well with Nebraska’s defense which thrives against the pass but is weak against the run.

Northwestern’s run game is 6^th in the Big Ten (at 190 ypg) and averaging 4.8 yards/carry with 2 running backs with over 350 yards rushing led by Caleb Komolafe who has 483 yards (4.5 ypc) and 5 TDs, which is impressive given they lost #1 running back Cam Porter earlier in the season.  Northwestern had 232 yards against Purdue and 137 yards against a tough Penn State defense.

Nebraska gives up 156 rush yards/game which is 87^th in the nation and only 15^th in the Big Ten at 4.6 yards/carry.  And of course, the Huskers just gave up 186 yards (5.3 ypc) to a Minnesota team whose rush offense was struggling.

Nebraska’s pass defense is excellent and leads the Big Ten (123 ypg) but Northwestern’s focus is running the ball and not relying on their pass offense which is 16^th in the Big Ten.

2-Northwestern’s defense is one of the best in the Big Ten giving up just 15.1 points/game and their pass defense strength matches up well with Nebraska’s pass offense strength suggesting they can contain the Husker offense.

Northwestern has only given up 35 total points in their last 3 Big Ten games including coming off a shutout against Purdue. 

The Cats are 7^th in Big Ten pass defense giving up 169 yards/game and their cornerbacks and secondary rank well in PFF with no glaring weakness.  This aligns well with Nebraska’s 7^th best Big Ten offense that is led by their 2^nd best Big Ten passing offense averaging 291 yards/game.

Big Jeff’s Call: I don’t understand this spread.  Yes, I expect Nebraska at home to play much better than the clunker at Minnesota but giving 7.5 points to a hot and confident Northwestern team with a really good defense that should keep this game low scoring feels quite high.

I can’t count on Nebraska to cover that number.  Remember, Northwestern has covered their last 3 games, Nebraska has not the last 4 games.  So I am riding that momentum and taking Northwestern to cover the 7.5 points, but the Huskers pull off a close 3-point win.  Nebraska 23 Northwestern 20. Confidence: Medium.

Game 5: IOWA -8.5 Minnesota (38.5 O/U) – via FanDuel

Background:

The final virtual Big Ten playoff elimination game of 5-2 teams is the Floyd of Rosedale rivalry between Iowa and Minnesota that started back in 1935.  Iowa won last year in Minnesota 31-14 and has won 9 of the last 10 vs the Gophers.

Iowa is 3-1 in the Big Ten and coming off a great 25-24 comeback win over Penn State last week and has won 2 in a row since losing at home to Indiana.  Iowa’s remaining schedule is 19^th toughest in the nation per PFF and is mostly middle of the road in the Big Ten with games that include vs Oregon, at USC and at Nebraska.

Minnesota is also 3-1 in the Big Ten and coming off their surprising 24-7 domination of Nebraska and also have won 2 in a row.   The Gophers remaining schedule is easier than Iowa ranking 38^th toughest in the nation per PFF and 5^th easiest in the Big Ten with their toughest games left at Oregon and Northwestern in consecutive weeks.

Iowa is 4-2-1 against the spread but had covered 4 in a row before not covering last week vs Penn State.  Minnesota is only 2-5 vs the spread and had not covered 4 in a row up till the big win over Nebraska.  SP+ has Iowa ranked 22^nd including having the 7^th rated defense and Minnesota is 49^th with the 19^th rated defense.

The 38.5 over/under is the lowest of all Big Ten games which makes the 8.5 points Iowa is giving Minnesota seem quite high.  Iowa has the 6^th best Big Ten odds to win the Big Ten title at +10,000.

Why Iowa can cover: 

1-The intangibles in this game favor Iowa over Minnesota. 

First, Minnesota is playing their 5^th week in a row and off an emotional home win over Nebraska and now plays in a tough road environment and could have a letdown against a team who plays really well at home.  Plus, Minnesota has only played twice on the road losing by 13 at Cal and 39 at Ohio State.  This will be Iowa’s only third game coming off their last bye.

Also, Minnesota has a first year starting quarterback playing on the road against Norm Parker’s difficult zone pass defense and Iowa quarterback Mark Gronowski has more college experience in general.

2-Iowa’s offensive line is the rare team that doesn’t have a single weak player against Minnesota’s defensive line that has one star but the other 3 players are average at best.

These rivalry games are typically won in the trenches, and Iowa has a clear advantage here.  It’s been consistent throughout the year; PFF ranks all five Iowa starters in the Top 11 across all Big Ten offensive linemen which is incredible.  The Gophers only have one highly rated PFF defensive lineman in end Anthony Smith who ranks 33^rd among all Big Ten linemen and after him the next PFF best d-lineman is 79^th rated Karter Menz.

Now Iowa is still second to last in Big Ten total offense but in scoring they are a solid 10^th averaging 29.9 points/game, so they still find a way to put up points and it’s through their 5^th best Big Ten rushing offense (193 ypg) led by running back Kamari Moulton now healthy and has 360 yards at 5.4 ypc and overall Iowa averages 5.0 yards/carry with very good depth.

Iowa must run the ball since they are dead last in Big Ten passing at 131 yards/game which is 30 yards worse than 17^th best Wisconsin.  For the year, Mark Gronowski has only 3 TDs with 4 interceptions and had only 68 yards last week vs Penn State and in 4 Big Ten games he has yet to throw for a TD with 3 interceptions.  Gronowski does have 289 yards rushing though at 4.3 ypc.

3-Iowa’s defense is the real deal and they are the only team this year to contain Indiana’s high-powered offense so they could make it a long day for the Gopher offense with a first year starting QB.

Iowa’s defense is 4^th in total defense in the Big Ten (249 ypg) and also 4^th in scoring defense yielding 14.6/game.   Iowa is stingy against both the pass (3^rd in Big Ten, 157 ypg) and the run (3^rd in Big Ten, 92 rush ypg).

Why take the points with Minnesota:

1-Gopher running back Darius Taylor looks finally healthy which makes the Gopher offense much more dangerous which they are going to need to stress an excellent Iowa defense.

Minnesota is 4^th to last in Big Ten total offense (341/game), but they are a solid 11^th in Big Ten passing at 218 yards/game behind Drake Lindsey’s passing and his impressive 10 TD to 3 interception ratio and he’s only been sacked 9 times. 

The Gophers didn’t run well last year and that has continued this year as they are 15^th in rushing (123 yards/game) but I feel the driver of that has been Taylor missing 2 games and playing very limited vs Ohio State.  Against Nebraska, Taylor had 148 yards at 6.2/carry.  The Gophers need to have good balance to move the ball vs Iowa.

2-Minnesota’s defense is good enough to potentially contain a one-dimensional defense like Iowa.

The Gophers are 6^th in total defense (295 ypg) and 8^th in scoring defense yielding 19 points/game.  The key is going to be Minnesota’s ability to stop Iowa’s run offense the Gophers are capable since they give up less than 100 yards rushing per game (98 ypg).  Containing the Iowa rushing game is an absolute must for the Gophers or they likely will get blown out.

3-Minnesota has a chance to get a turnover from Iowa QB Mark Gronowski who has had an interception in 3 straight games.

Big Jeff’s Call: When I first saw Iowa giving 7.5 points to Minnesota that moved to 8.5, I thought for sure I would be taking Minnesota in this game.  But after looking at the intangible of this game and the matchups of the units especially in the trenches that look to favor Iowa by a lot, I have changed my mind.

Plus, could we just totally underestimating how good Iowa is?  Their only 2 losses are in a rivalry road game at Iowa State 16-13 who were a Top 25 team and currently still 5-2, and then #2 ranked Indiana who scored a late touchdown to beat Iowa 20-15, and they held the Hoosier to 337 yards.

I am going against my initial gut feel and taking Iowa to cover the 8.5 points in a game that is close throughout, but they pull away with help of an interception or two from young QB Drake Lindsey.  Iowa 24 Minnesota 14.