Week 9 was highlighted by Indiana rolling, Penn State getting a big win in Madison, and Ohio State surviving a huge scare to Nebraska. The middle of the pack teams are beating up on each other and jockeying for position just to make a bowl game. Now we head into November when the meaning of all the games magnifies. But first, let’s get into our Week 9 Big Ten football top storylines …
Big Jeff’s Week 9 Big Ten Football Picks of the Week – Big Jeff’s Football
Big Ten Football Power Rankings (Week 10): Can Penn State Finally Beat Ohio State?
1. Ohio State survives close scare vs. Nebraska sending their fans into “DEFCON 4” status.
DEFCON is a five-level alert status of readiness for a potential nuclear attack used by the U.S. Armed Forces and made famous in the 1980s movie “War Games”. When Ohio State lost by one to Oregon two weeks ago, it sent Ohio State fans to “DEFCON 3” status lamenting how Ryan Day can’t win the biggest games against Top 5 teams. On Saturday, as a 25.5-point favorite OSU gave up a touchdown to Nebraska with under 11 minutes in the game to go down 17-14.
Quarterback Will Howard saved Ohio State leading a 75-yard touchdown march to score with six minutes left in the 21-17 win. But now Ohio State fans are at minimum at the “DEFCON 4” level. Some are even at “DEFCON 5”. There are legitimate significant concerns mostly tied to the offensive line and the Buckeyes inability to run the ball efficiently the past two games despite having the consensus best running back combo in TreVeyon Henderson and Quinshon Judkins.
Ohio State’s best lineman left tackle Josh Simmons is out for the season and against Nebraska they ran for just 64 yards at 2.1/carry. This is quite a surprise given their new Offensive Coordinator Chip Kelly is great at building strong rushing attacks as evidenced by his UCLA team last year leading the Pac 12 in rushing. At least Ohio State’s defense, which struggled against Oregon the last game, played well overall including a key 4th quarter goal line stand and icing the game with a final interception with 1:16 left.
In this season of “National Championship or bust” (which I never bought in to BTW), it has many Ohio State fans ready to throw Ryan Day to the sharks as they prep to play a huge matchup in Happy Valley with #3 Penn State this Saturday. Lose that one and it’s full “DEFCON 5” for most OSU fans.
It’s National Title or Bust for Ohio State and Ryan Day! Or is it? – Big Jeff’s Football
2. Indiana and Curt Cignetti with backup QB keep rolling to 8-0 with GameDay on hand. Win 3 of the next 4 and IU is likely in the playoffs.
The scene was electric Saturday morning in Bloomington, Indiana. ESPN’s College GameDay in town, Pat McAfee on stage lauding Curt Cignetti and the Hoosiers, Lee Corso getting celebrated for his return to his old stomping grounds where he coached the Hoosiers for ten years leading Indiana to its first ever bowl win in 1979.
It was all quite magical and then Indiana played a magical type of game beating Washington 31-17 with a backup quarterback (Tayven Jackson). Hoosier fans literally are in dis-belief this is happening to them. Cignetti has completely changed the program and culture, and the evidence was the sell-out and electric crowd on hand that saw an early 67-yard pick six by cornerback D’Angelo Ponds to get things going.
Maybe most impressive was Indiana’s ability to run the ball in the second half to protect their lead including a 14 play, 75-yard TD drive in the third quarter that took 7:42 off the clock and put IU up 24-14. The drive included 51 yards rushing mostly by RB Justice Ellison who finished with 123 yards at 4.2/carry. The ability to run the ball when you need to is the hallmark of a great team. Indiana still has not trailed and has won each game by double digits.
IU has three games left at Michigan State, home vs Michigan, at Ohio State and home vs Purdue. Win 3 of those 4 and Indiana will go from a 3-9 season to making the 12-team playoffs.
3. Penn State resilient again with backup QB leading second half comeback over Wisconsin setting stage for huge home showdown vs. Ohio State.
Two weeks in a row Penn State has showed the markings of a great team. First overcoming a 20-6 deficit on the road to USC and then this week down 10-7 at the half at Wisconsin with star quarterback Drew Allar getting hurt right before half. Sparked by a third quarter Jaylen Reed 19-yard interception to put Penn State up 14-10 and backup quarterback Beau Pribula going 14-18 for 148 yards and a touchdown pass, the Nittany Lions bounced back in a huge 28-13 road win.
Penn State’s defense came up big as well holding the Badgers, who had scored 117 points (39/game) the past three games, to 298 total yards but only 81 yards rushing at 3.0 yards/carry. Running back Tawee Walker had been key to the Badgers 3-game winning streak, but the Nittany Lions held him to just 59 yards.
Penn State’s biggest strength, beyond star tight end Tyler Warren, is their front seven and their ability to stop the run which ranks 3rd in the Big Ten giving up 93 yards/game. With Ohio State struggling with their offensive line and run game it puts Penn State in great position to beat the Buckeyes who have won 11 of the last 12 in the series and seven in a row.
4. Oregon continues to show they deserve their #1 ranking with dominant win over Illinois.
#24 Illinois came into Autzen Stadium a confident bunch with wins against three top 25 teams, the most of any Big Ten team. #1 Oregon dispatched the Illini with ease jumping on top early and scoring touchdowns on 5 of their first 6 drives to take a commanding 35-3 halftime lead, before winning 38-9 covering the big 22.5-point spread.
Not surprisingly the Ducks dominated total yardage with a 527 to 293 advantage and were well-balanced with 298 yards passing behind Dillon Gabriel and 229 rushing yards. It was a complete and impressive performance. And Oregon looks like the most complete team in the country deserving their #1 ranking.
5. Michigan finally likely has their QB going back to Davis Warren in rivalry “must win” over Michigan State.
It’s been a carousel at quarterback for Michigan this year. On Saturday in a rivalry game vs Michigan State, the Wolverines turned back to their original starter Davis Warren and though the statistics looked mediocre overall, the strategy worked in what might have been a (24-17) must win for Michigan. Lose this one and Michigan (now 5-3) would be 4-4 looking at remaining games vs. #1 Oregon, at #13 Indiana, vs. Northwestern and at #4 Ohio State needing two more wins.
Michigan was outgained 352 to 265 but got a key late second quarter sack and fumble by Josaiah Stewart on QB Aidan Chiles that led to a 37-yard field goal with six seconds left in the half to go up 9-7. This was a key play and unfortunately for the Spartans turnovers like these from Chiles has been the main reason their record is not better than 4-4.
For the day Warren was 13 of 19 for 123 yards, a touchdown and no interceptions. The zero turnovers are the most important stat and as long as Warren takes care of the ball, I think he will remain the starter for the Wolverines as they hope to upset some teams down the stretch.
6. Wisconsin blows opportunity for first signature win in Luke Fickell era as their QB play lets them down again.
The Badgers had all the ingredients to get the first signature win in Luke Fickell’s tenure at Wisconsin. A raucous home environment at Camp Randall stadium, high-confidence driven by a 3-game winning streak (with aggregate score of 117 to 16), and a newfound running game behind running back Tawee Walker coming off 198 and 126-yard rushing performances.
Things were looking good with Penn State star QB Drew Allar out with an injury and Wisconsin ahead 10-7 in the third quarter, until quarterback Braedyn Locke threw a 19-yard interception to Jaylen Reed returned for a touchdown that completely sucked the air and energy out of the stadium and put PSU up 14-10.
From there, the Badgers could only manage a field goal in the 28-13 loss and Penn State completely shut down the Wisconsin running game holding them to minus 4 yards for the second half. Badger RB Tawee Walker finished with only 59 yards. Given the limitations of Locke, Wisconsin must be able to run the ball to win. And it didn’t help that the Badgers could not get off the field and hold down Penn State replacement QB Beau Pribula who went 11-13 for 98 yards and a touchdown in the second half.
At 5-3 the path is not easy for Wisconsin from here with games at Iowa, vs. #1 Oregon, at Nebraska and home vs a surging Minnesota team. The Badgers will only likely be favored vs. the Gophers.
7. Minnesota QB Max Brosmer shines as Gopher potential ceiling this year needs to be recalibrated.
On September 28th, down 24-3 in the fourth quarter, Minnesota made a rousing comeback ar Michigan that came up short in a 27-24 loss. That made Minnesota 2-3 overall and 0-2 in the Big Ten that included a disappointing 31-14 home loss to Iowa. Next up on the schedule was a visit from #11 USC.
But P.J. Fleck stated that Minnesota was the best 2-3 team in America. After the Gophers dominated Maryland 48-23 on Saturday that has them on a 3-game winning streak and at 5-3 overall, Fleck was probably right, and it means we can recalibrate the ceiling for this team. The 48 points were there most since October 2019.
It has all been keyed by the play of New Hampshire transfer quarterback Max Brosmer, who was an efficient 26-33 for 320-yards and 4 touchdowns and was not sacked vs. the Terps, and a rugged defense ranked 5th in the Big Ten at 283 yards/game given up. Freshman Koi Perich has been the star of the defense and had his 5th interception on the season against Maryland’s Big Ten leading passing attack.
Minnesota is second to last in Big Ten rushing at 108 yards/game, but Brosmer has the Gophers averaging 226 yards/game vs last year’s 143 yards/game and their scoring is up from 20.9 points/game last year to 27.9 this year. He has made a huge difference and been a leader and stabilizing force for the Gophers.
Minnesota will need to be road warriors with 3 of the last 4 games away from home. But at #24 Illinois, at Rutgers, home vs #3 Penn State and at Wisconsin are all winnable games and potentially losable as well. A 7-5 record with this schedule would be a good season.
8. USC gets must win for Lincoln Riley and are probably best 4-4 team in football.
USC went from being ranked #11 after beating LSU in week 1, to being on the brink of not making a bowl game at 3-4 coming into their matchup with Rutgers. So similar to Michigan, this was really a must win and USC and QB Miller Moss came up big in the 42-20 convincing win.
Miller threw for 308 yards and 2 touchdowns and running back Woody Marks had 94 yards and 3 touchdowns and the USC offense was very efficient going for 11.0 yards/pass and 5.9 yards/rush. The USC defense was good enough giving up 434 yards but only 20 points.
Next up is a familiar foe at 4-4 Washington who plays much better at home than on the road. Win that one and you get Nebraska at home and at 2-5 UCLA before finishing against Notre Dame, so the Trojans and Riley have a real chance to build some positive momentum.
9. Illinois has been playing way over how their stats would indicate and was due for a clunker… and got just that in a 38-9 drubbing to the Ducks.
Illinois was 6-1 overall with 3 wins against Top 25 teams on their resume, including an emotional win the previous week over Michigan. Yet statistically the Illini were more middle of the pack ranked 12th in the Big Ten in both offense and defense in yardage/game indicating they have really overachieved this year. That bore out on Saturday as Oregon easily defeated Illinois after being up 35-3 at halftime.
Illinois was outgained 527 to 293 and lost the turnover battle 2 to 1 after being +7 coming into the game. Two of the turnovers were interceptions on QB Luke Altmyer who had just 1 interception coming into the game.
The good news for the Illini is this game was going to be very difficult to win anyway so they can just put it behind them. At 6-2 and with a very reasonable schedule they have a chance to go 10-2 and be in a position to possibly make the 12-team playoff depending on how they compare to other two loss teams. They ahve home games vs. Minnesota and Michigan State followed by at Rutgers and Northwestern. The combined record of these teams is 16-16 overall and 7-13 in the Big Ten so 10-2 really is in play for Bret Bielema’s team.
10. Iowa likely has found new quarterback in Brendan Sullivan that fans have been clamoring for and the results were good.
Jeffrey Becker-Imagn Images
I listen to the podcasts of various Big Ten teams which typically reflect well the feelings of the fan bases. For Iowa, there was great frustration with the stubbornness of coach Kirk Ferentz for sticking with quarterback Cade McNamara despite Iowa ranking 2nd to last in the Big Ten in passing.
After a second quarter McNamara pass was intercepted and returned for an 85-yard touchdown to put Northwestern up 7-3, Iowa finally made the switch to backup QB Brendan Sullivan and the results were very positive as the Hawkeyes easily dispatched the Wildcats 40-14.
Sullivan makes the Iowa much more dynamic reflected in his 79 passing and 41 rushing yards. It also seemed to create more space for the nation’s second leading rusher Caleb Johnson who ran for 109 yards and 3 touchdowns at 7.8 yards/carry. And the Iowa defense totally shut down the Wildcat’s Big Ten worst ranked offense giving up 163 yards, but the 14 points were from the interception TD return and a 72-yard Northwestern punt return.
Iowa is 5-3 and eight or even nine wins are in play with games against all unranked teams including vs. Wisconsin, at UCLA, at Maryland and vs. Nebraska. Those teams combined record is 16-15 overall and only 7-13 in the Big Ten.
College Football Week 7 Takeaways: National Championship Cont
